This is breaking news, as of 22:50 PST, on the fourth, the BBC is reporting that Sadr's people have taken over government buildings in Basra. This is a Shia area, in the south. This is a very serious turn of events and for some reason I don't think many people in DC are fully connecting the dots, either in Government or in the Media. So let me connect them for you.
Basra is Shia territory. Sadr is a somewhat extremist cleric who has said that demonstrations no longer work and other means must be taken.
It seems that his call has been heeded.
Now on top of this we are having a heck of a time controlling the Sunni Triangle.
I will do what I fear DoD has not done, I will worst case this: The worst case is that both groups will bury the hatchet and just fight us, the occupation forces, forgetting the other possible nightmare, a Civil War.
If they should unify themselves against us, we can expect a very nasty uprising.
Given Iraqi history, against the British in 1920, I do not hold my breath that things will get better any time soon.
I pray the worst case will not come to be, but since this mess started I have known that PNAC has been wrong EVERY STEP OF THE WAY, as they seem to best case everything.
Let's pray that the situation in Basra can be at the very least calmed down. From BBC reports it does look ugly, indeed. Combine this with the Marines going into Fallujah, and I can only fear that the Great Arab Revolt of 2004 (just like 1920) may be starting.
For Americans a closer analogy will be Tet. For the Arab world, it will be 1920 and Afghanistan which became a Jihad against the Russians.
Sincerely, Nadin Abbott
M.A History, SDSU